China e-commerce GMV growth accelerated in 4M19. In April 2019, Chinacommodity e-commerce GMV reached RMB616.1bn, up 25.8% yoy, growing2.3ppts mom, and China service e-commerce GMV reached RMB189.9bn,up 23.9% yoy; both achieving accelerated growth in 4M19.Key points: 1) Alibaba Group’s (the "Company") 4QFY19results werefar above our expectations. Non-GAAP net profit reached RMB20,056mn,up 42.3% yoy, exceeding our expectation by 47.8%. Thehigher-than-expected non-GAAP net profit was mainly driven byhigher-than-expected investment income. 2) The Company’s revenueguidance for FY20is in line with our expectations. According to themanagement, it is expected to reach over RMB500bn in revenue in FY20,representing growth of 32.7% yoy, basically in line with our estimations. 3)Gross margin will continue to remain under pressure in FY20due tocontinued investments. 4) We expect total operating expenses ratio toremain relatively stable in FY20to FY22. It is healthy for the Company tostrive for the balance between revenue growth and cost invested. 5) We haveslightly revised up our FY20bottom-line forecasts.Raise TP to US$198.00and maintain investment rating as "Buy". Eventhough the Company’s 4QFY19results were far above our expectations, ithasn’t made a significant impact to our FY20earnings estimation, which ispartially offset by lower gross margin estimation. We have fine-tuned our TP,which represents 30.0x FY20F non GAAP PE.中国电商交易量增长于 2019年 4月加快。 于 2019年 4月,中国实物电商交易量达到人民币 6,161亿元, 同比上升 25.8%,增长月环比上升 2.3个百分点,中国服务电商交易量达人民币 1,899亿元, 同比上升 23.9%﹔两者皆于 2019年 4月实现加快的增长率。
要点: 1)阿里巴巴集团( “公司”)的 2019财年第四季度业绩远超我们预期。 非 GAAP净利润达人民币 20,056百万元,同比上升 42.3%,高于我们预期 47.8%。高于我们预期的非 GAAP 净利润主要受到高于预期的投资收益所带动。 2) 公司的 2020财年收入指引符合我们的预期。 根据管理层称,预计收入在 2020财年将超过人民币 5,000亿元,相当于 32.7%的同比增长率,基本符合我们预期。 3) 由于持续投资,毛利率将于 2020财年继续受压。 4)我们预期总运营费用率于 2020财年至 2022财年将保持相对稳定。 公司在收入增长和投资成本之间取得平衡是健康的。 5)我们轻微上调公司 2020财年盈利预测。
上调目标价至 198.00美元, 维持投资评级为“买入”。 尽管公司 2019财年第四季度业绩远好于我们预期,但这对我们的 2020财年的盈利预测并没有明显影响, 其被毛利率预测下调所部分抵消。 我们轻微上调目标价, 相当于 30.3倍 2020财年非 GAAP 市盈率。